Wayne Selcher1
25 de maio de 2026
Em parceria com o Observatório Político dos Estados Unidos (OPEU), o Boletim Lua Nova republica, em cinco partes, a análise do professor Wayne Selcher, de Elizabethtown College, sobre a erosão do consenso democrático nos Estados Unidos. Este texto é o primeiro de uma série para o OPEU sobre as notícias políticas nos Estados Unidos. O texto foi originalmente publicado em 29 de fevereiro de 2024, no site do OPEU.
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The Permeation and Supremacy of Polarized Partisanship
The Negative Effects of Polarization on Democracy
This malady is so relevant and severe that Pew Research maintains a useful section with its surveys about political polarization in American politics. According to Gallup in January 2023, “Americans’ party preferences were evenly divided in 2022, with 45% of U.S. adults identifying as Republican or saying they were Republican-leaning independents, and 44% identifying as Democrats or saying they were Democratic-leaning independents.” A repudiation of the two-party system is implied in the fact that “since 2009, independent identification has grown and reached levels not seen before. Now, political independents (41%) greatly outnumber Republican (28%) and Democratic (28%) identifiers.” But many of the independents, although often seen as “swing voters,” tend to vote regularly for one party over the other. Each party also has its own internal factions and shifting intra-party coalitions. For example, persons of color who identify as Democrats are more conservative on some key social issues (including immigration, free trade, and abortion) than are the college-educated White liberals in the party.
“Political polarization in a range of social issues” was confirmed in an April 2023 NBC News poll, showing significant ethnic and age differences. “Three in four Republicans say the country should promote traditional social and moral values, while 67% of Democrats want greater tolerance of diverse lifestyles and backgrounds. Independents are split, with 49% picking traditional values and 41% siding with greater tolerance.” In its June 2023 values survey, Gallup found an increase in conservative attitudes (rising especially among Republicans) and a center-right norm in public attitudes on social issues, by the self-definition of respondents.
“More Americans this year (38%) say they are very conservative or conservative on social issues than said so in 2022 (33%) and 2021 (30%). At the same time, the percentage saying their social views are very liberal or liberal has dipped to 29% from 34% in each of the past two years, while the portion identifying as moderate (31%) remains near a third…. The last time this many Americans said they were socially conservative was 2012, during a period when consistently more U.S. adults identified as conservative rather than liberal on social issues… The survey comes at a time when many states are considering policies regarding transgender matters, abortion, crime, drug use and the teaching of gender and sexuality in schools.”
Much political science research supports the idea that voters as a whole lack internally coherent or sophisticated ideologies and an informed command of the issues. However, voters do show rather consistent identification with a political party, hold issue positions, and have a vague sense of liberal, moderate, and conservative on the political spectrum. Independents tend to tilt either one way or the other rather consistently. But it is not unusual for poll respondents who express “conservative” or “liberal” inclinations in principle to also state preference for some actual outcomes at odds with that chosen philosophical category. Accurate ideological classification also eludes many voters. Even though Trump has cast himself consistently and loudly as the foremost champion of conservative Americans, a July 2023 YouGov poll for The Economist found that “nearly a third of Americans with an opinion said they thought he was moderate or liberal. Among independents, it’s been more than a third. Among moderates, about half of those with an opinion think he’s a moderate or liberal.”
Gallup has assembled a national map by states from its attitude polling data (as of 2018) that shows that “The residents of most U.S. states are more likely to identify as conservative than as liberal in their political ideology. In 25 states, the conservative advantage is significantly greater than the national average, including 19 ‘highly conservative’ states in which conservatives outnumber liberals by at least 20 percentage points. Meanwhile, in six states, there are more liberals than conservatives.” Ballotpedia has shown, with a helpful map, that there is a high level of stability in party loyalty and divisions in voting patterns at the local level, with the Democratic counties at a considerably greater population density than the more numerous Republican ones.
“Almost nine in 10 Americans [87.2%] live in a county that has voted for the same party in the past three presidential elections [2012, 2016, 2020]. We describe these counties as either Solid Democratic or Solid Republican… A majority of Americans live in a Solid Democratic county. There were 459 of these counties after the 2020 presidential election, home to 171 million people (52%). There were 2,368 Solid Republican counties, home to 118 million people (36%).”
Thus, the usual strictly geographical national map of presidential election results by county shows most of the area of the country by far in red (Republican), with the blue (Democratic) results clustered in scattered, largely urban areas that have a much higher population density. The usual red and blue geographical election results map by states distorts the demographic reality even more. For other visualizations of the relationship, consult a dynamic map of presidential election results by county for 2016, which can be better understood with graphic information about population density (2020 election). Graphs of votes for president in 2020 by county populations–urban, suburban, and rural, including their demographic groups–are also insightful in a similar way to map out partisan divisions in the culture by location and social characteristics. Pew Research provides a fine analysis of the results of the 2020 presidential election, by many geographic and socio-economic variables relevant to the political culture of the national electorate.
In a comprehensive and insightful November 2021 poll on “Cultural Change and Anxiety in America,” the Public Religion Research Institute noted “Most Republicans (70%) say American culture and way of life have changed for the worse since the 1950s. By contrast, a majority of Democrats (63%) think that American culture and way of life have changed for the better, much the same as in 2020 (62%). Independents closely resemble the general population (48% better) and have also declined in this view since 2020 (57% better).” Whereas Democrats tend to see an evolving national identity, Republicans tend to see an established culture under attack.
A June 2023 Monmouth poll identified these disparate partisan differences in concerns about threats to the fundamental American values of freedom and personal rights:
“While both Republicans and Democrats express concern about risks to their freedoms, the specific types of rights they worry about losing are very different. Among Republicans, 38% say their freedom of speech or First Amendment rights are under threat and an identical 38% say the same about their Second Amendment right to bear arms. Other concerns Republicans mention include specific references to freedom of religion (12%) and concerns about government overreach and Fourth Amendment infringements such as illegal search and seizure (6%). Democrats, on the other hand are most concerned with restrictions to abortion access along with other women’s rights (36%). They also mention threats to freedom of speech (14%), voting access and the election process (12%), freedom from gun violence and other safety issues (8%), as well as LGBTQ+ rights (8%).”
According to an Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research poll, as of early 2023, divergences in priorities were quite apparent–“Both Democrats and Republicans cite economic issues as top priorities, but their top issues diverge from there. Democrats are most concerned about climate change and guns, while Republicans tend to prioritize immigration and inflation.” In a June 2023 poll, Pew Research showed wide disparities between Republican policy preferences and those of Democrats on a broad range of current issues, although both sides agreed that the inability of the two parties to work together was a major concern.
“Inflation remains the top concern for Republicans and Republican-leaning independents, with 77% saying it is a very big problem. The state of moral values, illegal immigration and the budget deficit also are seen as top problems by at least two-thirds of Republicans. For Democrats and Democratic leaners, gun violence is the top concern, with about eight-in-ten (81%) saying it is a very big problem. The affordability of health care ranks second (73% say this). Democrats are more than four times as likely as Republicans to say that climate change is a very big problem in the country (64% vs. 14%). Democrats are also much more likely to say gun violence and racism are very big problems. By contrast, Republicans are more than twice as likely as Democrats to say that illegal immigration is a very big problem (70% vs. 25%). They are also about 30 percentage points more likely than Democrats to say that the state of moral values and the budget deficit are very big problems.”
To expand on one outstanding example of the divergences cited above, amidst concerns over constant mass shootings, and rising public support for stricter gun laws, the sharp partisan divide and rhetoric about gun ownership, rights, and policy persist. It should be noted that a 2008 ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court (District of Columbia v. Heller) determined that the “Second Amendment protects an individual right to possess a firearm unconnected with service in a militia, and to use that arm for traditionally lawful purposes, such as self-defense within the home.” In June 2022, the Supreme Court ruled in favor of the individual right to carry a firearm in public for self-defense. But these rulings did not reject all forms of regulation of access to, ownership of, and carrying of firearms, which are the areas where debate continues.
Regarding current public attitudes by political affiliation, according to a YouGov poll in March 2023
“More than half (55%) of Americans believe gun laws should be more restrictive than they are today, but Democratic and Republican views differ starkly on the matter. Democrats (79%) are 24 percentage points more likely than the average American to say gun laws should be more restrictive as compared to 29% of Republicans who believe the same. Beliefs regarding gun rights in the country are similarly divided across party lines. Most Democrats (56%) say that the Constitution only protects access to guns for militias while just 20% of Republicans agree; 80% say the Constitution protects unrestricted access to guns for everyone.”
As a general rule, Democrats are more likely to lean toward enhancing collective responsibilities, and Republicans toward preserving or expanding personal freedoms. On many issues, Democrats tend to favor a larger role for the federal government, while Republicans tend to favor solutions through the state and local governments or the private sector. This preference holds true even though states that tend Republican (“Red”) tend to receive more in benefits from the federal government than the amount that they pay in, compared to states that tend Democratic (“Blue”). The Washington Post’s Department of Data notes with charts for the 2021 Fiscal Year that, largely because of average income differentials among states, “Eight of the 10 states that get the most money back from the federal government per dollar they pay into the system voted for Trump in 2020. Nine of the 10 states that got the least voted for Biden. The typical red state gets back 19 cents more for each dollar sent to Washington than its blue-state friends.”
Gallup registered these considerable partisan differences in attitudes toward the role of the federal government in November 2022
“A 54% majority of Americans say the federal government has too much power, while 39% say it has about the right amount of power and 6% say too little. These figures have generally been stable throughout the Donald Trump and Joe Biden presidential administrations. Since 2005, no less than 50% of Americans have said they believe the federal government is too powerful, with some of those readings reaching 60%… Currently, 74% of Republicans, 32% of Democrats and 54% of independents believe the federal government has too much power… Consistent with their party platforms, most Republicans (75%) currently say the government is doing too many things, and most Democrats (66%) believe the government should be doing more. Independents’ views mirror the national average.”
With a close party split in the electorate, a diminished political center, and a nearly bimodal configuration between the two major political parties in their self-definition, terminology, narratives, ideologies, issue concerns, and style, it is becoming harder to generalize accurately about the country’s value consensus as a whole. For example, in 2023, conservatives are enthusiastic about Republican-run Texas and Florida (both gaining population) as desirable models to emulate, while liberals turn to Democratic-run California and New York state (both losing population) as positive frames of reference. Pew Research found in November 2021 that Republicans and Democrats differ even in some aspects of the ways they find or value meaning in life, beyond their common family attachments, friends, careers, health, and hobbies.
“In the United States, even the meaning of life can have a partisan tinge… In fact, even some of the words that partisans use to describe where they draw meaning in life differ substantially. Republicans, along with independents who lean to the Republican Party, are much more likely than Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents to mention words like ‘God,’ ‘freedom,’ ‘country,’ ‘Jesus’ and ‘religion.’ Democrats are much more likely than Republicans to mention words like ‘new,’ ‘dog,’ ‘reading,’ ‘outside,’ ‘daughter’ and ‘nature.’”
Generational change is also at work. According to demographic statistics compiled by the Washington Post about the U.S. Congress, “The current class of lawmakers is one of the oldest in history, with an overall median age of 59. The median age of senators is 65, the highest on record. In the House, the median age has hovered between 57 and 58 for the past decade, higher than in any year before that period.” And in the public, according to Pew Research, “… older voters rule both parties. In 2022, 6 in 10 Democrats and 7 in 10 Republicans were 50 or older.” Younger generations (say, 18 to 29 years of age), reflecting the main events of their lifetimes, tend to hold more progressive views than older generations in the current controversies about religion, climate change, LGBTQ+ rights, gun control, public health, and economic inequality, among others, according to the annual Harvard Youth Poll. Greater youth engagement in politics will change some issue-oriented aspects of the national political culture.
For insightful attempts to paint the big picture accurately and with nuances, consult the Gallup Poll’s Ideology section, Pew Research’s 2021 analytical study “Beyond Red vs. Blue: The Political Typology,” the Public Religion Research Institute’s 2021 report “Competing Visions of America” and its American Values Atlas, and the American Enterprise Institute’s American Perspectives Survey. Harvard’s Kennedy School conducts yearly surveys of the attitudes of American youth. In January 2021, Pew Research posted a fine comprehensive summary of the effects of Trump’s presidency on US public opinion and political culture. For serious study of American elections and their campaigns, trustworthy sources include the Electoral Knowledge Network, Ballotpedia, Polls and Votes, Gallup Poll, Pew Research, FiveThirtyEight, The Cook Political Report, and Sabato’s Crystal Ball. The Political Dictionary is a good source for the definition of political terms in American usage.
A Crisis of Trust and Confidence
Partisan symbols and personal or group identity markers contributing to a sense of “belonging” have become vital to many voters, as a form of partisan “identity politics.” Decades of heavily negative political advertising have taken a toll. Each political party blames the other for national problems, decline, and threats to democracy, even though the broader causes are very bipartisan over decades, such as in immigration reform, educational quality, public health, poverty, drug abuse, trade policy, illegal immigration, failed wars, national debt, government inefficiency, and infrastructural decay. Each side refuses to own up to its own accountability and to correct its own defects, failures, and corruption, but instead wrangles rules for advantage, indulges in a “what about…?” style of accusations of the other, and calls for investigations only of the other side.
A June 2023 AP-NORC poll stated that
“In the survey, respondents were asked to rate the importance of six principles: personal responsibility, fair enforcement of the law, representative government, government accountability, compassion and respect across differences, and learning from the past. In each case, about 90% of both Democrats and Republicans rated these values as very or extremely important. When asked if members of the opposing party thought those values were very or extremely important, however, about two-thirds of respondents said no.”
Both parties claiming that “the other side is worse” and to blame for government paralysis and threats to democracy (for example, relative severity of the January 6 attack vs. the southern border immigration crisis, or ongoing threats of federal government shutdown) is not a strong public endorsement for the worth or effectiveness of negative partisanship. This high level of antagonism and distrust is worrisome, because the critical role of mutual inter-party trust in maintaining the rules and norms of democracy in spite of policy disagreements is well-known.
This was demonstrated by an academic study in the journal Nature Human Behaviour (2023) that focused on the major question, “Why voters who value democracy participate in democratic backsliding.” The authors concluded from an experimental observational survey using scenarios that both Democrats and Republicans were somewhat willing to condone anti-democracy measures to favor their own party, if they believed that their opponents were going to do the same to favor their party. Willingness to violate democratic norms in the experiment was increased by the fact that each side, in distrust, attributed to the other more anti-democracy intentions than that side actually demonstrated. On the other hand, with confidence that the other party would respect democratic norms, “the partisans became more committed to upholding democratic norms themselves and less willing to vote for candidates who break these norms.” Therefore, accusations or beliefs that the other party is engaged in subverting democracy, as is common in some partisan rhetoric today, or actual attempts to subvert democratic norms, are corrosive to the political culture of trust in the norms on which democracy depends.
A base-driven trend among Republicans of antagonism and intransigence instead of compromise has been growing around the country. The aggressive drive to roll back liberal programs and ideas has been carried down as far as the elected local school board level in small towns, a “clean house” conservative approach that has been called “Total Politics”–“maneuvers [that] enlist every aspect of government, including ostensibly neutral, nonpartisan elements, into a ruthless battle.” Winning at whatever cost has become far more important in some zealous activist sectors than observing norms of civility. “Scoring points” and pursuing partisan advantage rather than bipartisan cooperation to break the stalemate further disillusion the already heavily skeptical public about the effectiveness of democratic government, the possibility of even-handedness, and the quality of judgment of the public.
An AP-NORC poll done in December 2022 found
“While the public has a wide-ranging agenda for the federal government, they are not confident that it will be able to address these concerns. Seventy-three percent have very little confidence in the ability of the federal government to make progress on important issues facing the country, including 39% who are not confident at all.”
A large April 2023 Pew Research poll stated that “a majority of Democrats (58%) and 52% of Republicans view the country as unable to solve key problems.” The same poll discovered low levels of confidence in the public about the wisdom of fellow citizens:
“Nearly identical shares of Republicans (23%) and Democrats (24%) say they have a very great deal or a good deal of trust in the political wisdom of the American people; most in both parties (77% of Republicans and 75% of Democrats) express not very much or no confidence in the political wisdom of other Americans.”
An October 2020 poll by the American Enterprise Institute showed the extent of partisan distrust and mutual suspicion:
“38 percent of Americans see the GOP being dangerous to the nation’s future, but a similar number (37 percent) feel the same way about the Democratic party. In contrast, only 31 percent of Americans believe that the policies of the GOP move the country in the right direction and another 27 percent feel the same way for the Democratic party. Talk about a vote of no confidence: That leaves a plurality of Americans who think that neither party will move the country in the right direction.”
A December 2022 Gallup poll concluded that
“For the seventh year in the past decade, Americans name dissatisfaction with the government as the nation’s top problem in 2022, especially Republicans. Further, in that poll, Americans’ satisfaction with the way things are going in the U.S. has tumbled nine percentage points, to 18%, from last year’s average. The 2022 figure is the lowest point since 17% in 2011 and just the fourth time since 1979 that annual satisfaction has been below 20%.”
Public trust in government and the institutions necessary for democracy continues to decline to worrisome lows, with “record-low confidence across all institutions,” according to Gallup in mid-2022, and “near-historic lows” of trust in government in a time series of polls from 1958 to 2022, according to Pew Research. The American Institutional Confidence Poll surveyed public confidence in American institutions, including three key tech corporations, first in 2018 with replication in 2021. The results showed drastic drops in the period regarding nearly all institutions among Republicans, but relatively little change in either direction among Democrats–“Republicans are losing confidence in everything, and everyone is losing confidence in ‘big tech.’”
The effects of January 6, 2021 and the change from Trump to Biden as president may have accounted for some of the dramatic surge in Republican distrust, but Democrats remained rather steady regarding political institutions. The authors observe that “Much of U.S. democracy relies on bipartisan support for norms and institutions. Large shifts like this deserve ongoing scrutiny.”
To cite one major institutional example, the U.S. Supreme Court has positioned itself since Marbury v. Madison (1803) as the ultimate arbiter of the Constitution. Contrasted with the high courts of most other developed democracies, the U.S. Supreme Court has a higher public profile, unusually broad power and reach to declare legislation and executive acts unconstitutional, a highly fraught and partisan/ideological appointment process (while usually feigning neutrality), and lifetime appointments. In recent years, the Court, like most U.S. institutions, has come to be seen as merely partisan rather than objective and guided by legal principles and precedent (stare decisis). Senate votes on nominations of candidates for the Court have been heavily along party lines.
One in three Americans in a 2021 Annenberg poll said they “might be willing” to abolish or limit the Supreme Court, largely because it makes decisions of which they disapprove, or has “too much” power. Negative sentiment increased in the public after the reversal of Roe v. Wade in June 2022 had the effect of restricting access to abortion services, to the approval of Republicans, but contrary to national public opinion. Questions about ethics among the Court’s justices in 2023 further tarnished the reputation of the Court, although the justices at the time saw no need to adopt a formal code of conduct. All of these factors weaken public confidence in the impartial and fair rule of law upon which a healthy democracy depends.
Yet, for context, as pollster Professor Emeritus Charles Franklin notes, the public knowledge about the Court, its role, and procedures is weak–“Despite a long standing Republican-appointed majority on the Court, and the current 6-3 majority, 30% of the public believes a majority of the justices were appointed by Democratic presidents. About 40% say a majority was ‘probably’ appointed by Republican presidents, and just 30% say a majority was ‘definitely’ appointed by Republican presidents.” This misperception holds in spite of Trump’s frequent boasting about creating a conservative supermajority on the Court with his appointments, which he and most conservatives consider perhaps the greatest achievement of his presidency.
Public trust is especially lacking for the mass media. A 2021 survey by the American Press Institute found that many Americans do not agree philosophically with some of the five core values or principles of the journalistic profession that were tested, such as “a good way to make society better is to spotlight its problems.” Those who valued authority and loyalty, for example, were less convinced that the press should act as a “watchdog” on those in power, the traditional “Fourth Estate” role.
A 2021 poll by Reuters Institute for the Study of Journalism at Oxford showed that Americans ranked the lowest among 46 countries in trust in the mass media. The annual Digital News Report by that Institute in 2023 concluded that “The US remains well in the bottom half of [the 46] countries surveyed in terms of news trust.” One summary of this report called attention to a growing tendency of many to avoid news consumption (“news avoidance”) because of the stress that it causes: “38 percent of U.S. respondents say they sometimes or often avoid news, including 41 percent of women and 34 percent of men… the proportion of people who are ‘extremely’ or ‘very interested’ in the news continued to sink. In the United States, this group was in the minority (49 percent) for the first time in the survey’s short history, down from 67 percent in 2015.”
An October 2022 Gallup poll analysis registered very large declines in public trust in the mass media since the 1970s on the part of Republicans and independents.
“Just 7% of Americans have ‘a great deal’ of trust and confidence in the media, and 27% have ‘a fair amount.’ Meanwhile, 28% of U.S. adults say they do not have very much confidence and 38% have none at all in newspapers, TV and radio… Americans’ trust in the media remains sharply polarized along partisan lines, with 70% of Democrats, 14% of Republicans and 27% of independents saying they have a great deal or fair amount of confidence. Notably, this is the first time that the percentage of Americans with no trust at all in the media is higher than the percentage with a great deal or a fair amount combined… The current level of public trust in the media’s full, fair and accurate reporting of the news is the second lowest on record.”
* Este texto não reflete necessariamente as opiniões do Boletim Lua Nova ou do CEDEC. Gosta do nosso trabalho? Apoie o Boletim Lua Nova!
Referência imagética: A crowd-erected gallows hangs near the United States Capitol during the 2021 storming of the United States Capitol (Credit: Tyler Merbler from the United States/Wikimedia Commons)
- Wayne A. Selcher, PhD, é professor Emérito de Estudos Internacionais no Departmento de Ciência Política, na Elizabethtown College, PA, USA, e colaborador regular do OPEU. É fundador e editor da WWW Virtual Library: International Affairs Resources, um guia para pesquisa on-line sobre os mais diversos tópicos. Contato: wayneselcher@comcast.net. ↩︎
